Global Air Cargo Traffic Growth Turned Positive

Air cargo traffic is also recovering after two years of contraction. Led by strong recovery in Asian exports, monthly world air cargo traffic growth turned positive in November 2009 after 18 straight months of decline. Air cargo traffic is now forecast to return to its 2007 peak by the end of 2011.

Growing world trade, stringent inventory control standards, increasing demand for transport of perishable and time-sensitive commodities, and the need to replace aging airplanes will create a requirement for 2,490 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years. About 1,750 of these will be conversions from passenger airplanes.

In the large freighter segment, more than half of the deliveries will be for new airplanes. Although the purchase price of converted large freighters is very attractive and conversions will continue to play an important supporting role, the performance and reliability advantages of new, purpose-built freighters are significant for intercontinental cargo operations, where larger, heavier payloads and range are crucial. Of the 770 large freighter deliveries, 520 will be new airplanes.

Most economies in the Asia Pacific region weathered the recent economic downturn well and are growing rapidly again. With China and India leading the growth among emerging markets, the region’s economy will grow at a rate of 4.6 percent per year for the next 20 years, significantly outpacing the world’s average growth rate. The region will see its share of the world GDP expand from 26 percent today to 34 percent by 2029.

Half of the world’s new traffic added during the next 20 years will be to, from, or within the Asia Pacific region. Total traffic for the region will grow 6.8 percent per year during the period. Driven by economic development and the increasing accessibility of air transport services, traffic within the region will grow faster than traffic to and from other regions. Shorter-haul flying, including domestic travel and international travel within the region, will grow 7.1 percent per year.

The region depends heavily on air cargo to transport goods over difficult terrain and vast stretches of ocean. Some of the world’s largest and most efficient cargo operators compete to transport high-value and time-sensitive exports to markets outside the region. Air cargo growth will total 6.8 percent per year during the next 20 years.

Rising passenger and cargo traffic is creating pressure for fleet growth. To modernize their fleets and meet the growing demand for air travel, Asia Pacific airlines will need 10,320 new airplanes, valued at more than $1.3 trillion, over the next 20 years. The number of airplanes in the Asia Pacific fleet will nearly triple, from 4,110 airplanes in 2009 to 12,200 airplanes in 2029. New airplane manufacturers have seized on the opportunity presented by this huge requirement to develop new competitors for the region’s aviation market.

Forecast deliveries to North America continue to decline as the region’s mature domestic market grows at a modest rate of 2.8 percent over the next 20 years. The majority (78 percent) of new regional-jet and single-aisle deliveries will be for replacement. Growth will be stronger on international services, which will grow 4.9 percent per year, driving demand for 1,180 new efficient twin-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 787.

After several years of massive losses, the North American industry, led by low-cost carriers, is showing signs of improvement with a small operating profit for 2009. Despite modest profit, traditional network airlines are holding back on large-scale fleet renewals. North America accounts for only 14 percent of the world’s backlog. Airplane age will become an issue as fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh increasingly on earnings. Increased attention on aviation’s impact on global climate change will also be a factor in selecting airplanes that produce less carbon emissions.

The commercial aviation market in Europe remains resilient, despite the economic challenges in the region. European airlines took delivery of 340 jet airplanes in 2009. During the next 20 years, the region’s GDP is expected to grow 1.9 percent annually. Europe is forecast to take delivery of 7,190 new airplanes, valued at $800 billion over the same period. Single-aisle airplanes will account for 75 percent of the new deliveries, making Europe one of the top regions for single-aisle operations.

European airlines take environmental responsibility seriously. They are replacing older airplanes with new, more efficient airplanes. By 2029, only 4 percent of the airplanes currently in service will still be flying. The region’s airlines are also investing in biofuel research and working to improve air and ground operations to reduce fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions.

The Middle East continues to outperform the world in air travel growth. The only region in the world where international traffic increased during 2009, the region achieved a robust growth of 11.2 percent. Traffic remains strong as of the first quarter of 2010, with passenger traffic growing 25 percent and air freight 34 percent. Although the region’s oil wealth is certainly a driving force, the remarkable growth of air travel and growing prominence of Middle East carriers also owes to geography, demographics, improved airplane capabilities, and the airlines’ well-coordinated growth and investment plans.

Middle East demographics also favor continued air travel growth. Over half the population is under the age of 25 – the population segment that will account for much of the future market. By comparison, the average age in the United States, Europe, and China ranges from 35 to 45. Governments across the region are supporting more open access for aviation and investing in aviation infrastructure. Over the next three decades, $48 billion is committed to airport projects to significantly increase the number of passengers able to visit Dubai, Doha, Jeddah, Abu Dhabi, Cairo, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Muscat.

New-generation long-range airplanes can reach any point in the world from the Middle East, making the region an ideal connecting point between Europe, Africa, India, and Asia. Gulf airlines using “sixth freedom” agreements, which allow carriage of revenue passengers between two foreign countries with a stop at an airport in the home country, are an attractive, low-cost alternative to nonstop flights offered by European and Asian carriers. Middle East carriers have gained significant market share, with a 64 percent capacity share between the Middle East and South Asia, a 68 percent share to Europe, a 77 percent share to Southeast Asia, and an 80 percent share to Africa.

The major Arabian Gulf carriers have amassed a prodigious backlog of orders for the long-range airplanes necessary to compete in these markets. Emirates currently has 175 airplanes on order, all of them wide- bodied. Qatar has 143 airplanes on order, 123 of which are wide-bodied. And Etihad has a total of 106 on order, including 86 wide- bodied.

Six new low-cost carriers have emerged in the Middle East since 2003, largely targeting the youthful population and the large migrant worker population from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Flying single-aisle airplanes on short- and medium-haul routes, these carriers have ambitious growth plans. Flydubai has 8 airplanes in service and 44 more on order. Air Arabia has 18 airplanes in service and 44 more on order.

Total air travel for Latin America will grow faster than the world average rate during the next 20 years. South American routes will lead the region’s growth, reflecting strong economic growth, continued investment in aviation infrastructure, and liberalization of airline ownership and traffic rights. In fact, the South American air travel market will climb to the seventh largest on our table of world regional flows by 2029.

The ability to offer attractive long-range services is helping the region’s airlines gain market share from global competitors. By 2029, airlines based in Latin America will provide 57 percent of the capacity to, from, and within the region, compared to 46 percent today.

The economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) were recovering from a deep recession during 2009, the effects of the global contraction having been more severe in the region than in other emerging markets. The Russian economy shrank a dramatic 7.9 percent and the Ukrainian economy declined 15.1 percent. As of June 2010, the economic rebound has provided moderate relief.

Air traffic, however, has risen strongly. After a 9.4 percent drop in Russian domestic air traffic during 2009, the first quarter of 2010 showed a 33.5 percent increase, according to the Russian Federal Aviation Agency.

The CIS is the only region where there are fewer aircraft in operation today than there were 15 years ago. This reflects more on the changing composition of the airplane fleet than on the market for air travel. In the mid-1990s, less than 2 percent of the CIS fleet was Western-built aircraft – with only a few dozen Boeing and Airbus airplanes in operation. Today, nearly half of the fleet consists of more efficient Western-built airplanes.

The total economy of the continent of Africa is expected to grow 4.8 percent in 2010, following 2.9 percent growth in 2009. The worldwide recovery has stimulated demand, both for African export commodities and for imports to Africa of telecommunication equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured goods. African airlines are projected to return to profitability for the first time since 2002 in response to the renewed economic activity and bolstered by what IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani describes as “a decade of cost-cutting, restructuring, and re-engineering.” Reflecting these developments, projections for African airline profits have been revised from the US$100-million loss anticipated three months ago to a Several trends suggest continued growth in African aviation. The continent’s jet fleet now averages 19.8 years of age in an era when increasing fuel costs require newer, more efficient aircraft. Most of the African fleet is single-aisle airplanes supporting flights within the continent and between North Africa and Europe, traditionally Africa’s principal trading partner. As the demand for African commodities grows and foreign development and tourism increase, African carriers will require a modernized fleet in order to compete on routes historically dominated by foreign carriers.